The outlook of an all-out trade war between the U.S. and China remains a central question for the global economy, but the two sides appear to disagree even about whether talks have begun.
President Donald Trump late Wednesday said the world’s two largest economies are “actively” discussing trade issues.
Hours later, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jaikun contradicted Trump’s account, dismissing it as “fake news.” The two sides have not discussed tariffs, Guo said.
Soon afterward, Trump reaffirmed his view, telling reporters that representatives of the two countries had met as recently as Thursday morning. When asked to identify the representatives involved, Trump declined to say.
The trade spat escalated earlier this month when Trump hiked tariffs on Chinese goods to a whopping 145%. China responded with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods and other countermeasures.
“This is a game of chicken,” Yasheng Huang, professor of global economics and management at MIT, told ABC News.
Here’s what to know about where U.S.-China trade talks stand and how experts characterize the impasse:
What is the Trump administration saying about U.S.-China trade talks?
Multiple top Trump administration officials this week offered accounts of U.S.-China trade relations, striking different postures toward China.
In an apparent softening of his stance, Trump said Tuesday that tariffs on China would “come down substantially.”
“145% is very high and it won’t be that high. It won’t be anywhere near that high,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “But it won’t be zero.”
A day later, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt offered additional context on such plans, firming up the U.S. position. There would be “no unilateral reduction” in tariffs, Leavitt said.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the same day referred to a prospective U.S.-China trade agreement as “an opportunity for a big deal.” Bessent criticized China’s trade practices but also voiced a conciliatory tone.
“If they want to rebalance, let’s do it together,” he told an audience at the Institute of International Finance in Washington, D.C. Trump’s policies amounted to an “external push” toward realignment in U.S.-China trade, Bessent said.
Late Wednesday, Trump told reporters the U.S. and China are “actively” engaged in talks. A top Chinese official on Thursday dismissed the description of ongoing discussions as “fake news.”
Hours later, Trump ratcheted up his rhetoric.
Trump urged Boeing to “default China” in response to a Chinese order that airlines reject deliveries of the U.S.-based aerospace company’s planes. “This is just a small example of what China has done to the USA, for years,” Trump said in a post on social media.
How has China responded?
Guo, the spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, rejected Trump’s assertions suggesting progress toward a trade deal.
“China and the United States have not held consultations or negotiations on the tariff issue, let alone reached an agreement,” Guo said at a press conference on Thursday.
China’s Commerce Ministry reportedly echoed the view, saying China is open to talks while urging the U.S. to roll back tariffs.
“If the U.S. really wants to solve the problem, it should take seriously the rational voices from the international community and domestic sectors, and fully eliminate all unilateral tariff measures against China,” Commerce Ministry Spokesperson He Yadong said on Thursday.
The Wall Street Journal reported the remarks from He Yadong.
The statements from Chinese officials maintain a posture voiced in previous remarks: a willingness to negotiate alongside a call for U.S. de-escalation.
When China hiked its tariffs up to a total of 125%, the country said it would not raise tariffs any further.
China has taken additional countermeasures, however. China earlier this month imposed export restrictions on some rare earth elements and magnets that make up critical inputs in some U.S. auto, energy and defense products.
For now, Chinese companies can still export to U.S. buyers, though the Chinese firms must receive approval from the Chinese government.
President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a bilateral lunch with Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store in the Cabinet Room at the White House, April 24, 2025 in Washington.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
What do experts think of where the U.S.-China trade war stands?
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs earlier this month roiled markets and triggered recession warnings on Wall Street.
Within days, Trump paused far-reaching “reciprocal tariffs” on all countries except for China. Instead, Trump preserved across-the-board 10% tariffs on nearly all imported products and escalated tariffs on China.
After the shift in tariff policy, U.S. consumers still face an average effective tariff rate of 25.2%, the highest since 1909, the Yale Budget Lab found in a report.
Trump’s apparent softening toward China comes amid continued market volatility and persistent fears among consumers and analysts about the economic fallout, experts told ABC News.
“Everyone is spooked about the specter of this long trade war with China. You can see it in the markets,” Meg Rithmire, a professor of business administration at Harvard University, told ABC News. “It seems like the Trump administration is getting nervous about that.”
Still, Rithmire added, the Trump administration appears unwilling to commit to unilateral de-escalation.
“The Trump administration sings a different tune every day,” Rithmire noted. “If they’re not going to do it unilaterally, they need to do it bilaterally. For that to happen, they have to have some kind of communication.”
China appears to perceive itself as having the upper hand in the standoff, experts said.
In a matter of weeks, Trump granted a tariff exemption for some electronics and floated the possibility of a reduction in the overall tariff rate. The U.S. faces an elevated risk of recession and inflation as a result of tariffs on China, experts previously told ABC News.
“China sees Trump is vulnerable to pressure,” Huang said. “They are making it a condition that the U.S. has to back off of its tariffs and then they can talk.”
